The Low Density Polyethylene market experienced a very unusual second quarter in 2026. The period started with strong upward pressure as supply became tighter, raw material costs increased, and international shipping faced serious uncertainty. The conflict between Iran and the US and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz created difficulties for the movement of crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, and finished petrochemical products.

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These disruptions had a direct effect on LDPE production and trade. Lower availability of Iranian material was particularly important for Asian buyers, while producers in other regions also faced higher feedstock and transportation costs. As a result, buyers in several countries had to accept significantly higher offers to secure regular supplies.

The LDPE price trend during Q2 2026 was therefore strongly bullish in most markets. The largest increases were seen in Europe, where some markets recorded gains of more than 70% during the quarter. North America, Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia also recorded sizeable increases, although the scale of the movement differed from one market to another.

The situation started changing toward the end of June. Improving shipping conditions and the ceasefire reduced some of the pressure on international trade. Feedstock costs also began to cool in some regions. However, the correction was not the same everywhere. Europe experienced a particularly sharp decline, while several Asian markets remained relatively firm because supply from Iran had not fully recovered.

What Happened in the LDPE Market During Q2 2026?

LDPE is widely used for films, flexible packaging, agricultural films, bags, liners, liquid packaging, and several other everyday products. Because of this broad use, the market normally depends heavily on both raw material costs and regular converter demand.

During Q2, the supply side became the main driver. The Strait of Hormuz closure affected the movement of crude oil and petrochemical feedstocks. Naphtha availability became tighter, while ethylene costs increased. Producers then faced higher expenses at a time when transportation and insurance costs were also rising.

Another important factor was the reduction in Iranian LDPE exports. Buyers that normally depended on Iranian material had to search for alternative sources. This increased demand for cargoes from Saudi Arabia, the USA, and other major suppliers.

The result was a rapid increase in offers across international markets. However, by June, the market began moving in two different directions. Some regions saw a noticeable correction as feedstock and freight costs declined, while others continued to experience firm conditions because supply remained limited.

Mexico Market

Mexico recorded a major increase during Q2 2026. CIF Manzanillo offers for General Purpose Film grade from the USA increased by approximately 57% during the quarter.

The increase was mainly connected with higher US export offers. American producers faced increased ethylene and crude-related costs, and these expenses were reflected in export quotations. Freight and insurance costs also increased as shipping companies considered the wider geopolitical risks.

Currency pressure added another challenge for Mexican converters. Higher import costs meant that buyers had to spend more to secure the same amount of material. Despite these higher costs, demand remained active enough to keep the market near its elevated levels.

June brought some relief. Values declined by around 8% as the ceasefire reduced concerns about supply routes and US export offers became softer. Freight premiums also started to return closer to normal levels.

USA Market

The US market recorded one of the strongest quarterly increases, with FOB Houston General Purpose Film grade rising by around 59% in Q2 2026.

The main reason was the increase in ethylene feedstock costs. Disruptions to naphtha flows and higher energy-related costs placed pressure on production economics. US producers continued operating at relatively normal rates, but the international shortage of alternative material kept demand for US-origin LDPE strong.

This was especially important for export markets. Buyers outside the USA looked toward Gulf Coast suppliers to replace material that had become difficult to source from other regions. This helped keep domestic availability tight and supported higher export quotations.

The market remained close to record levels for much of the quarter. However, June saw a correction of about 9%. The ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reduced some of the pressure on feedstock movement and helped lower export costs.

Brazil Market

Brazil also experienced a sharp increase, with CIF Santos offers for General Purpose Film grade imported from the USA rising by approximately 57% during Q2.

Higher Houston export values were the main contributor. American suppliers were dealing with higher feedstock costs, while shipping and insurance expenses also increased. These additional expenses were eventually passed on to Brazilian buyers.

Importers continued purchasing because LDPE is an important material for flexible packaging and other manufacturing applications. Even though costs were high, buyers still needed regular supplies to keep their operations running.

In June, values declined by around 8%. Lower freight expenses and softer US export offers helped reduce some of the pressure that had built up during the earlier part of the quarter.

Saudi Arabia Market

Saudi Arabia recorded a quarterly increase of approximately 37–38% for General Purpose Film and Heavy Duty Film grades.

Although Saudi Arabia is a major petrochemical producer, local manufacturers were not completely protected from the problems affecting the wider region. Feedstock movement was disrupted, while ethylene and naphtha costs remained high.

Saudi producers also redirected some material toward markets where buyers were willing to pay higher prices. This reduced availability for some regional customers and added further support to the market.

Reduced Iranian exports increased demand for Saudi-origin cargoes, particularly among Asian buyers looking for alternative supplies.

In June, the market declined by around 5% as shipping conditions improved and the reopening of the Strait helped restore more normal trade flows.

China Market

China showed a mixed market during Q2. Imported material from Saudi Arabia recorded an increase of around 36–37%, while domestic Ex-Ningbo Film Grade increased by approximately 21%.

The difference between imported and domestic material was mainly related to supply. Saudi-linked imports became more expensive because of higher Jeddah export values, freight costs, and insurance expenses. Iranian supply constraints also encouraged buyers to look for alternative cargoes.

Domestic Chinese material faced a somewhat different situation. New LDPE and LDPE-EVA capacity additions at coastal plants helped provide additional supply. This prevented domestic values from increasing as sharply as some import offers.

June brought a correction in both segments. Saudi-linked imports declined by approximately 6%, while domestic Ex-Ningbo material fell by around 9%. Increased local availability was an important reason for the larger domestic correction.

Belgium Market

Belgium experienced one of the most dramatic increases in Europe. FD Antwerp General Purpose Film grade rose by approximately 74% during Q2 2026.

The European market was heavily affected by higher naphtha and ethylene costs following the disruption to Middle Eastern supply routes. Several crackers operated at reduced rates because production economics became difficult. This reduced the availability of ethylene and downstream polyethylene products.

As supply became tighter, buyers had to compete for available material. This pushed the market to exceptionally high levels through May.

However, June brought a major reversal. Values declined by around 24% in a single month. The lower June ethylene settlement played an important role, while weak film demand also meant that some producers were left with more material than expected.

Germany Market

Germany followed a pattern similar to Belgium. FD Hamburg General Purpose Film grade increased by approximately 74% during Q2.

The European feedstock market experienced strong cost pressure during the quarter. Higher naphtha values increased ethylene production costs, while reduced cracker operating rates tightened LDPE availability.

For buyers, this created a difficult situation. They needed material for packaging production but faced significantly higher supplier offers. The combination of limited supply and increased production costs pushed the market to levels not seen for several years.

The situation changed quickly in June. Values fell by approximately 24% as the ethylene contract settled lower and packaging demand remained weak. Increased availability relative to demand created additional pressure on sellers.

Italy Market

Italy recorded an increase of around 73% during Q2 2026. FD Genoa offers for General Purpose Film grade followed the wider European movement.

Higher naphtha and ethylene costs increased production expenses, while reduced operating rates at some Mediterranean petrochemical facilities limited supply. This combination created a strong upward movement during most of the quarter.

The market reached very high levels before beginning to correct.

In June, values fell by around 24%. The decline was linked to the sharp reduction in the June ethylene settlement and relatively weak demand from film producers. With more material available than buyers were willing to take, sellers faced greater pressure to reduce offers.

France Market

France also recorded a major quarterly increase of approximately 73%. FD Le Havre General Purpose Film grade followed the strong European rally.

Higher feedstock expenses were a central factor. The disruption in Middle Eastern supply routes pushed up naphtha and ethylene costs, while lower operating rates at several petrochemical facilities reduced local availability.

The market remained firm for most of Q2. However, conditions changed considerably in June.

Values dropped by around 24% during the month. Lower ethylene costs combined with weak film demand to create a more balanced supply situation. Producers therefore had less room to maintain the extremely high offers seen earlier in the quarter.

India Market

India experienced strong increases in both imported and domestic material during Q2.

Saudi-origin imports delivered to Nhava Sheva increased by around 41–44%, while domestic Ex-Ahmedabad and Ex-West India grades increased by approximately 29–32% depending on the grade.

Imported material became more expensive because Saudi export values increased, while Gulf freight and insurance costs also rose. The shortage of Iranian supply added further competition for available Middle Eastern cargoes.

Domestic values were supported by tight producer inventories and a weaker rupee. Even though downstream demand was not particularly strong, suppliers maintained disciplined selling practices and avoided aggressive price reductions.

June was more mixed. Saudi-linked imports declined by approximately 8%, helped by softer Jeddah offers and lower freight costs. Domestic Ex-Ahmedabad and Ex-West India values, however, increased by around 1% as producers continued to control availability.

Vietnam Market

Vietnam recorded a quarterly increase of around 42–43% for Saudi-origin General Purpose Film and Heavy Duty Film grades.

Higher Jeddah export offers were passed through to Vietnamese buyers, while freight and insurance expenses added to the landed cost. The reduction in Iranian supply into Southeast Asia also increased dependence on alternative sources.

Demand from packaging and consumer goods industries remained sufficient to support regular purchasing. Buyers continued to replenish inventories despite the higher cost environment.

In June, the market declined by approximately 5%. Softer Saudi export offers and lower Gulf freight costs helped reduce import expenses. However, the correction remained smaller than in Europe because regional supply conditions were still relatively tight.

Outlook for the Coming Period

The second quarter of 2026 demonstrated how quickly LDPE markets can react when feedstock supply, shipping, and geopolitical conditions change at the same time. The quarter began with severe supply concerns and very high production costs, but June showed that prices can also correct quickly when those pressures start to ease.

The direction of crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene will remain important for producers. Freight rates will also continue to influence imported material, particularly in countries that rely heavily on overseas suppliers.

Demand will be another key factor. If packaging demand remains weak, producers may face greater pressure to reduce offers when feedstock costs decline. On the other hand, continued supply restrictions could limit the size of any correction.

For buyers, the Q2 experience highlights the importance of monitoring both raw material markets and logistics conditions instead of looking only at finished polymer quotations. A change in feedstock costs can quickly influence production economics, while shipping disruptions can have an equally strong effect on imported material.

Overall, the market remained highly volatile during Q2 2026. The sharp increases seen across major regions were followed by a noticeable correction in June, particularly in Europe. The final direction will depend on how quickly international supply chains normalize, how feedstock values develop, and whether downstream demand improves. For businesses that purchase LDPE regularly, these factors will remain important when planning inventories and future procurement costs.

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About Price Watch™

Price Watch™ is an India-based, independent raw material price reporting agency that provides real-time price forecasts and data-driven insights into global raw material markets. Price Watch™ specializes in tracking raw material prices, analyzing market trends, and delivering timely updates on plant shutdowns, supply disruptions, capacity expansions, and demand-supply dynamics. The Price Watch™ platform empowers manufacturers, traders, and procurement professionals to make faster, smarter decisions. Leveraging AI-powered forecasting and over a decade of historical data, Price Watch™ transforms market volatility into actionable opportunity.

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